文章摘要
许国钰,任晓冬,杨振华,肖杰,刘立冰,高洋.利用弹性网对PLS佐证分析城市水生态足迹及驱动因素——以贵阳市为例[J].水土保持通报,2018,38(4):220~227,233
利用弹性网对PLS佐证分析城市水生态足迹及驱动因素——以贵阳市为例
An Analysis on Water Ecological Footprint in Guiyang City and Its Driving Factors Based on STIRPAT Model Using Partial Least Squares and Elastic Net Regression
投稿时间:2018-04-09  修订日期:2018-05-07
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.04.036
中文关键词: 水生态足迹  STIRPAT模型  环境EKC  偏最小二乘法  弹性网
英文关键词: water ecological footprint  STIRPAT model  environmental Kuzenets curve  PLS regression  elastic net regression
基金项目:贵州省研究生教育创新计划项目“贵州省熊康宁喀斯特环境研究生导师工作室”(黔教研合GZS字[2016]04号);贵州省十一五科技计划课题“贵州喀斯特石漠化综合防治技术集成与典型模式凝炼和推广”(黔科合SZ (2 008)3077)
作者单位E-mail
许国钰 贵州师范大学 喀斯特研究院/国家喀斯特石漠化防治工程技术研究中心, 贵州 贵阳 550001  
任晓冬 贵州师范大学 喀斯特研究院/国家喀斯特石漠化防治工程技术研究中心, 贵州 贵阳 550001 renxiaodong@hotmail.com 
杨振华 贵州省山地资源研究所, 贵州 贵阳 550001  
肖杰 贵州师范大学 喀斯特研究院/国家喀斯特石漠化防治工程技术研究中心, 贵州 贵阳 550001  
刘立冰 贵州师范大学 喀斯特研究院/国家喀斯特石漠化防治工程技术研究中心, 贵州 贵阳 550001  
高洋 贵州师范大学 喀斯特研究院/国家喀斯特石漠化防治工程技术研究中心, 贵州 贵阳 550001  
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中文摘要:
      [目的]在分析贵阳市水生态足迹时间序列的基础上,探讨影响贵阳市水生态足迹的驱动因素,评估其水资源可持续利用程度,为水资源的合理利用提供决策参考。[方法]利用水生态足迹理论,计算出2002—2016年贵阳市水生态足迹,水资源承载力和水资源可持续利用指数。再根据环境压力模型STIRPAT建模,并运用偏最小二乘法(PLS)回归对模型进行分析,再利用弹性网回归对PLS进行佐证,分析出影响城市水生态足迹的几个驱动因素。[结果]①2002—2016年贵阳市水生态足迹呈波动式上升趋势,水生态承载力总体上呈波动下降趋势。水资源可持续利用指数在研究时段内都低于1,表明整个城市用水处于不安全状态。②STIRPAT模型进行最小二乘法(LS)回归分析,结果表明模型中4个驱动因素存在多重共线性。③采用PLS回归对STIRPAT模型进行修正,消除驱动因素之间的共线性,但VIP只筛选出人均GDP的二次项、人口两个有意义的驱动因素。④根据弹性网回归对STIRPAT进行分析,人口,人均GDP,第一二产业占总产业比值,城市化率都对贵阳市水生态足迹产生影响。第一二产业占总产业比值和城市化率都与贵阳市的水生态足迹间存在环境EKC假说。[结论]贵阳市在发展经济与推动快速城市化的过程中,必须降低水生态足迹,才是实现水资源可持续利用的关键。
英文摘要:
      [Objective] Based on analyzing the time series of urban water ecological footprint in Guiyang City, this paper made use of the water ecological footprint model to calculate the water ecological footprint and evaluated the sustainable utilization of water resources and to provide some advice for rational utilization of water resources.[Methods] Using water ecological footprint theory, the water ecological footprint, water resources carrying capacity and sustainable utilization index of water resources in Guiyang City from 2002 to 2016 were calculated. Then, according to the environmental pressure model STIRPAT modeling and using partial least squares(PLS) regression and elastic net regression to back up and analyse the driving force factors which affect the water ecological footprint.[Results] ① From 2002 to 2015, as a whole, water ecological footprint in Guiyang City was on the rise. The water ecological carrying capacity was in a large fluctuating range. The water resources sustainable utilization index was lower than 1. The water resource in the whole city was in a insecure state. ② Using LS regression to analyze the STIRPAT model, the results showed that the four driving force factors in the model have multiple collinear. Then, using partial least squares(PLS) to modify the STIRPAT model, the total linearity between the driving force factors was eliminated. But the VIP value only selected two meaningful driver force factors:the quadratic term of per capita GDP and the population. ③ According to the analysis of STIRPAT by elastic net, the results showed that the population, per capita GPD, the first two industries accounted for the ratio of the total industry, and the urbanization rates affected the water ecological footprint of Guiyang City. The water ecological footprint between first two industries accounted for the ratio of the total industry and the urbanization rate both existed the environmental Kuzenets curve.[Conclusion] In the process of developing and promoting rapid urbanization, the water ecological footprint of Guiyang City must be reduced, which is the key to the sustainable development of water resources.
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