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基于突变级数法的土地生态安全评价及其影响因素研究——以广西壮族自治区为例
苏正国1,2, 李冠3, 陈莎3, 聂鑫4
1.广西壮族自治区国土资源厅, 广西 南宁 530028;2.广西壮族自治区土地储备中心, 广西 南宁 530028;3.浙江大学 土地科学与不动产研究所, 浙江 杭州 310058;4.广西大学 公共管理学院, 广西 南宁 530004
摘要:
[目的]分析影响土地生态安全状态变化的关键因素,为优化土地利用模式,落实广西壮族地区生态文明建设提供依据。[方法]在PSR模型的基础上结合“自然—经济—社会”和“人口—资源—环境—发展”框架构建了评价体系,运用突变级数法(CPM)揭示该区土地生态安全2005—2015年的总体变化趋势,并通过计算灰色关联度对不同阶段的影响因素进行甄别。[结果]2005—2009年广西地区土地生态安全水平呈快速上升趋势,达到较安全状态,主要归功于土地生态系统状态改善带来的积极作用;2010—2015年广西土地生态安全水平呈现先上升稳定后下降至临界状态,虽然生态系统压力水平的显著提升引起了土地生态安全水平的下降,但是生态系统响应状况呈逐年提高带来了正向的推动作用。灰色关联度结果显示,2005—2009年的生态安全水平变化主要是由于广西地区造林工程的积极推进带来的生境改善;2010—2012年的变化主要是社会经济水平提升和社会发展;2013—2015年的变化主要是由于人口增长以及人类活动对自然环境的响应。[结论]针对影响土地生态安全水平的主要限制因素,广西地区今后应更加注重转变经济增长方式,提升资源利用效率,控制工业污染排放和提升农业科技水平等各方面的工作。
关键词:  土地生态  突变级数法  灰色关联  影响因素
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20180712.001
分类号:
基金项目:国家社会科学基金重点项目“促进区域协调发展的差别化土地调控政策研究”(13AZD012);国家自然科学基金项目“主体功能区规划框架下国土资源空间开发差异化策略与跨区域生态补偿机制研究:以广西为例”(71363005),“海岸带生境动态变化与农户土地利用生计策略多情景模拟及政策调控研究:以广西北部湾为例”(71763001)
Land Ecological Security Evaluation and Its Influence Factors Based on Catastrophe Progression Method-Taking Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region as an Example
SU Zhengguo1,2, LI Guan3, CHEN Sha3, NIE Xin4
1.Department of Land Resources of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Nanning, Guangxi 530028, China;2.Department of Land Reserve Center of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Nanning, Guangxi 530028, China;3.Research Department of Land Science and Real Estate, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310029, China;4.School of Public Administration, Guangxi University, Nanning, Guangxi 530004, China
Abstract:
[Objective] The key factors affecting the change of land ecological security status were further identified in order to provide the basis for optimizing land use pattern and implementing the construction of ecological civilization in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region.[Methods] Based on the PSR model combined with the NES(nature-economy-society) and PRED(population-economy-environment-development) framework, a four-level evaluation system was constructed, including the target layer, criterion layer and index layer, factors level. The catastrophe progression method(CPM) was applied to reveal the land ecological security overall trend in Guangxi Autonomous Region from 2005 to 2015, and through calculating the grey correlation degree, we can identify the influence factors of different stages.[Results] The results show a rapid upward trend of the land ecological security level in Guangxi area from 2005 to 2009 and reached at a relatively safe state, which was mainly attributed to the positive effect of the improvement of land ecosystem situation. From 2010 to 2015, the level of the land ecological security first increased steadily and then dropped to a critical state. Although the significant increase of ecosystem pressure caused a decline of the land ecological security, the increase of ecosystem response year by year brought positive effects. The results of grey correlation analysis show that the changes from 2005 to 2009 were mainly attributed to the afforestation project and ecosystem improvement. And the changes from 2010 to 2012 were mainly due to social and economic advancement and social development. From 2013 to 2015, the changes were mainly due to population growth and the response of human activities to the natural environment.[Conclusion] In view of the main limiting factors affecting the level of land ecological security, Guangxi area should pay more attention to the transformation of economic growth mode, improving resource utilization efficiency, control ling industrial pollution emissions and enhancing the level of agricultural science and technology and so on.
Key words:  land ecology  catastrophe progression method (CPM)  grey correlation  influence factors