文章摘要
刘永婷,徐光来,高超,任秀真,刘继锋,李鹏.淮河上游径流演变规律及其对气候驱动因子的响应[J].水土保持通报,2018,38(3):8~13
淮河上游径流演变规律及其对气候驱动因子的响应
Law of Runoff Evolution and Its Response to Climate-Driven Factors in Upper Reaches of Huaihe River Basin
投稿时间:2017-12-06  修订日期:2018-01-03
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.03.002
中文关键词: 流量  弹性系数法  气候变化  淮河上游
英文关键词: runoff  elastic coefficient method  climate change  the upper reaches of Huaihe River
基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年项目“平原河网水系测度与演化机制研究:以杭嘉湖区为例”(41301029),“精确测年下黄山北麓河流阶地发育机制与水系演化研究”(41301011);国家自然科学基金项目“不同空间尺度农业旱涝灾害气象因子致灾阈值的确定:以淮河上游地区为例”(41571018)
作者单位E-mail
刘永婷 安徽师范大学 地理与旅游学院, 安徽 芜湖 241002
安徽自然灾害过程与 防控研究省级实验室, 安徽 芜湖 241002 
 
徐光来 安徽师范大学 地理与旅游学院, 安徽 芜湖 241002
安徽自然灾害过程与 防控研究省级实验室, 安徽 芜湖 241002 
guanglaixu@163.com 
高超 宁波大学 地理与空间信息技术系, 浙江 宁波 315211  
任秀真 安徽师范大学 地理与旅游学院, 安徽 芜湖 241002
安徽自然灾害过程与 防控研究省级实验室, 安徽 芜湖 241002 
 
刘继锋 信阳市水文水资源勘查局, 河南 信阳 464000  
李鹏 河南省驻马店水文水资源勘测局, 河南 驻马店 450003  
摘要点击次数: 205
全文下载次数: 156
中文摘要:
      [目的]研究淮河上游径流的变化趋势及其对气候驱动因子的响应,为防洪防汛,水资源的合理规划管理及区域社会经济可持续发展提供决策依据。[方法]基于1975-2014年淮河上游的年平均流量、降水、蒸发数据,使用时序分析、交叉小波分析法和弹性系数法,分析河川流量和气候要素的变化趋势及周期性特征,探讨淮河上游径流对气候驱动因子的响应状况。[结果]①淮河流域上游河段流量、降水量呈不同程度的减少趋势,递减率分别为3.8 m3/(s·10 a)和26.3 mm/10 a,而潜在蒸散发量的变化趋势不明显。②淮河流域上游流量的周期变化主要是6~12 a的年际变化,年降水量在2 a左右的年际变化周期与年潜在蒸散发量的基本一致。年流量和年降水量、潜在蒸散发量的显著相关区域均主要分布于20世纪90年代以后。③通过定量估算气候因子对流量影响,发现年降水和年潜在蒸散发对流量的弹性系数εPεEo分别为2.30和-0.47。年流量与降水量关系密切,而与潜在蒸散发的关系不大,未来降水的变化是影响水资源变化的主要因素。[结论]在气候变化、流域下垫面和人类活动的综合影响下,河川径流的年内分配均匀度发生着相应变化。
英文摘要:
      [Objective] Taking the upper reaches of Huaihe River basin as a case study, this paper investigates the law of runoff and its response to climate-driven factors in order to provide the scientific basis for flood control, reasonable planning of water resources and economic sustainable development.[Methods] By using hydrological statistics, cross wavelet transform analysis and elastic coefficient method, we analyzed the variation trend and the periodicity of the runoff in Huaihe River. The relation between the meteorological factors and the runoff in multi-time scales was analyzed as well in the study area.[Results] ① The runoff and precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend at a rate of -3.8 m3/(s·10 a) and -26.3 mm/10 a, respectively. The variation of potential evapotranspiration was not obvious. Precipitation was the most dominant factor controlling changes of annual runoff, and the correlation coefficient was 0.9 between precipitation and runoff. However, both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration influenced runoff processes within a year. ② Wavelet analysis showed that periodic variation of annual runoff in the upper reaches of Huaihe River was 6~12 a. The variation of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration presented a same periodicity of 2 a. There were significant correlations among annual-runoff, annual-precipitation and annual-potential evapotranspiration in 1990s. ③ The responses of runoff to climate-driven factors were not stable, changing with time. Elastic coefficient of annual precipitation and evapotranspiration were 2.30 and -0.47, respectively. Annual runoff had a significant correlation with precipitation while little correlation with the potential evaporation, indicated that precipitation change was the main factor that influence variation of water resources in future.[Conclusion] With the comprehensive impacts of climate change, underlying surface of watershed and human activities, the annual distribution of runoff uniformity will be changed greatly.
查看全文   查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
关闭