%0 Journal Article %T 基于生态足迹的广西壮族自治区水资源生态特征时空变化规律及其驱动因素分析 %T Spatial-temporal Variation of Water Ecological Characteristics of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Its Driving Factors Based on Ecological Footprint Model %A 莫崇勋,赵梳坍,阮俞理,莫细喜,孙桂凯,黄亚 %A Mo Chongxun %A Zhao Shutan %A Ruan Yuli %A Mo Xixi %A Sun Guikai %A Huang Ya %J 水土保持通报 %J 水土保持通报英文版 %@ 1000-288X %V 40 %N 6 %D 2020 %P 297-302,311 %K 生态足迹;LMDI模型;水资源;时空变化;驱动因素;广西壮族自治区 %K ecological footprint;LMDI model;water resources;temporal and spatial variation;driving factors;Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region %X [目的] 分析近10 a来广西壮族自治区水资源生态特征的时空变化规律,探讨水资源生态足迹变化的驱动因素,为该区或同类区域的水资源合理开发与利用管理提供参考依据。[方法] 基于生态足迹模型中的水资源生态足迹、水资源生态承载力及水资源生态容量指标分析2008-2017年广西壮族自治区水资源生态特征的时空变化规律,并采用LMDI模型分析生态足迹变化的驱动因素及各地级市在关键驱动因素上的贡献比例。[结果] ①广西壮族自治区人均水资源生态足迹整体呈下降趋势,平均下降速率为-0.017 4 hm2/(人·a),人均水资源生态承载力和生态容量整体呈波动上升趋势,平均上升速率分别为0.324 6 hm2/(人·a),0.342 1 hm2/(人·a),三者在空间上均呈一定的差异性和不均衡性;②经济效应、人口效应是拉动该区水资源生态足迹增长的第一、第二因素,贡献效率分别为191.8%,25.38%,技术效应、结构效应是抑制水资源生态足迹增长的第一、第二因素,贡献效率分别为-238.0%,-79.18%;③南宁市、桂林市在结构效应和技术效应上对减少水资源生态足迹的空间贡献比例最大。[结论] 广西壮族自治区水资源生态容量处于生态盈余状态,该区的水资源利用效率逐渐提高,水资源开发局势整体向好。但城市发展与规划存在较大差异,需因地制宜地采取对策。 %X [Objective] The temporal and spatial variations of the water ecological characteristics of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in recent 10 years, and the driving factors of the water ecological footprint changes were studied in order to provide reference for the rational development, utilization and management of water resources of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region or similar regions.[Methods] Based on the water resources consumption ecological footprint, water resources ecological carrying capacity and water ecological capacity indexes in the ecological footprint model, the temporal and spatial variations of the water ecological characteristics in the study area from 2008 to 2017 were analyzed. LMDI model was used to analyze the driving factors of the ecological footprint changes and the contribution rate of each prefecture-level city in the key driving factor.[Results] ① The ecological footprint of water resources per capita presented an overall downward trend, with an average decline rate of -0.017 4 hm2/(person·year). The water resources ecological carrying capacity and water resources ecological capacity showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the average rising rate of 0.324 6 hm2/(person·year) and 0.342 1 hm2/(person·year) respectively. All of them showed a certain differences and imbalances in space. ② Economic effect and population effect were the first and second factors to promote the growth of the water ecological footprint in the study area, contributing efficiency of 191.8% and 25.38% respectively. Technical effect and structural effect were the first and second factors restraining the water ecological footprint growth, with contributing efficiency of -238.0% and -79.18% respectively. ③ Nanning City and Guilin City contributed the most to reduce the water resources consumption ecological footprint in terms of structural effect and technical effect.[Conclusion] The ecological capacity of water resources in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region was in an ecological surplus state. However, great differences existed among different cities in urban development and planning, so countermeasures should be taken according to local conditions. %R 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2020.06.042 %U http://stbctb.alljournal.com.cn/stbctb/home %1 JIS Version 3.0.0